Inside today’s Daily Journal…

Editor’s note: For the second time this week, Porter is turning the Daily Journal over to Emmet Savage, the chief investor and co-founder of the research firm MyWallSt. Emmet has been involved in the stock market for more than two decades, with an independently proven annual return in excess of 24% for the last decade – more than triple what the S&P 500 returned.

Recently, Porter sat down with Emmet to uncover how he explains his success. Watch their interview here for more… It’s quite the conversation.

Here’s Emmet…

The most revolutionary act an investor can perform is often nothing at all.

While the 24-hour news cycle and the flashing red of a market ticker scream for action, the history of the U.S. stock market suggests that the most profound wealth is built not through activity, but through extraordinary patience. As we look across nearly a century of data, the case for a long-term “buy and hold” strategy becomes undeniable. Here is why the “boring” path of staying invested is consistently the most lucrative.

Let’s take a look at some of the reasons why…

Many investors mistake volatility for a permanent loss of capital. In reality, market pullbacks are the “cost of admission” for long-term gains. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has proven that while the climb is jagged, the trajectory is relentlessly upward, surviving everything from the Great Depression to global pandemics.

As the data shows, drawdowns are a feature of the system, not a bug. Over 90% of years experience a dip of at least 5%, and a “correction” (10% or worse) occurs in nearly two out of every three years.

It is tempting to sell when the world feels like it’s falling apart. From the Cuban Missile Crisis to the war in Iran, geopolitical shocks often trigger immediate market fear. However, history shows that the market is incredibly resilient. On average, the S&P 500’s one-year forward return after major geopolitical crises is a robust 14.2%.

The lesson? The “noise” of the headlines is rarely a reason to abandon a well-constructed investment plan. As Sir John Templeton famously noted, the time of maximum pessimism is often the best time to buy, and the worst time to sell.

The most compelling argument for long-term investing is the mathematical relationship between time and the probability of loss. If you hold the S&P 500 for a single day, your chance of losing money is nearly a coin flip (46%). However, as your time horizon expands, that risk begins to evaporate.

According to data from Bank of America Global Research, the probability of a negative return drops to just 6% over a 10-year period. When you extend that to 20 years, the historical probability of losing money in the S&P 500 has been 0%.

The “reward” for sitting through the 20% and 30% drawdowns is the significant forward returns that typically follow. Investors who have the stomach to hold, or better yet, add, during a 30% market drop have seen average five-year forward returns of 88%, with a 98% win rate.

The enduring power of compounding in U.S. stocks relies on one thing: duration. The market is designed to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient. By avoiding the pitfall of “market timing” and ignoring the short-term fluctuations caused by geopolitical noise, you allow your capital to do the heavy lifting.

As you look at your portfolio today, remember that today is just one more in a multi-decade journey, whatever the headlines may tell you. The fluctuations you feel now will likely be invisible blips on a log-scale chart twenty years from now. Stay invested, stay patient, and let the power of the greatest wealth creation machine we’ve been lucky enough to participate in work for you.

Emmet Savage
MyWallSt.

Porter traveled to Ireland recently to meet with Emmet – and to learn his system. In their conversation, which they recorded on video, Emmet revealed that he’s found what he believes is his next 100-bagger. A U.S.-listed stock that he says could be the next Tesla, Nvidia, or Netflix… He adds: “and I’m personally going in very heavily with my own money.”

In Porter’s interview with Emmet, you’ll discover more about this under-the-radar company that’s applying AI to an archaic industry that’s refused to adapt to the times.

Go here now to see Porter and Emmet’s conversation before it’s too late.

Tell us what you think: [email protected]

1. Philip Morris: the smoke-free king. The world’s largest nicotine company, Philip Morris International (PM) delivered yet another stellar quarter, with revenue increasing 9.1% year-on-year to $10.1 billion, while earnings per share grew 16%. ZYN nicotine pouches and IQOS heat-not-burn devices fueled 25% revenue growth across its smoke-free segment. As the world’s most dominant smoke-free nicotine company, Philip Morris remains one of Complete Investor’s highest conviction “Forever Stocks,” with shares up 104% since our July 2022 recommendation.

2. One plus one equals a lot in an AI collaboration. At this week’s Google Cloud Next conference in Las Vegas, Complete Investor recommendations Salesforce (CRM) and Alphabet (GOOG) unveiled an expanded partnership that lets autonomous AI agents, say, read a Gmail thread, update a Salesforce record, and post to Slack without a human ever jumping in. Companies that own the data (Salesforce Data Cloud, Google BigQuery) and the rails into the workflow (Slack, Gmail, Workspace) become exponentially more valuable. Google also announced that it is splitting its flagship TPU chips into two versions: one to train AI models and one to power AI agents to execute AI functions. Shares of both CRM and GOOG rose on the news.

3. Tensions continue to rise in the Persian Gulf. Lloyd’s List, the 292-year-old shipping industry paper of record, says it has tracked at least 26 Iranian shadow fleet vessels slipping past the U.S. Navy in the Strait of Hormuz since April 13, even as President Trump brands the U.S. blockade a “tremendous success,” and the Pentagon flatly denies the tally. This morning, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard-linked Tasnim News Agency also published a map of Persian Gulf undersea cables and cloud hubs concentrated in the UAE and Bahrain – a thinly veiled threat, coming after Iranian drones already struck data centers in both countries – as Iran seized two more container ships in the Strait. Meanwhile, Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely as Vice President J.D. Vance’s planned trip to Pakistan for peace talks was postponed.

Construction and mining-equipment maker Caterpillar (CAT) continues its impressive performance, hitting an all-time high of $807 today – now having jumped 116% since joining Porter’s Permanent Portfolio in 2024.

In yesterday’s Daily Journal, Porter wrote the second part of his explanation of “A Turning Is Coming In 2029.” Readers share their thoughts…

Jim H. writes:

Porter Comment: If you have gold, you have a chance at hanging on to your savings. Some chance is better than no chance.

Stephen S. writes:

Steve M. writes:

Porter Comment: Stay tuned. I’m writing a new book that’s 100% about what’s happening and exactly what to do about it.

Please note: The investments in our “Porter & Co. Top Positions” should not be considered current recommendations. These positions are the best performers across our publications – and the securities listed may (or may not) be above the current buy-up-to price. To learn more, visit the current recommendations page of the relevant service, here. To gain access or to learn more about our current recommendations, call our Customer Care team at 888-610-8895 or internationally at +1 443-815-4447.