The Reports Of Humanity’s Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated
Inside today’s Daily Journal…
Essay: AI’s Got Nothing On Us
Money supply grows again
A lesson in Lindy stocks
Korea company to energize AI
Chart Of The Day… Gold miners versus the S&P
Today’s Mailbag
Editor’s note: Today, Distressed Investing analyst Andy Lipman explores the common belief that the introduction of artificial intelligence into the workplace means the displacement of large numbers of American workers.
Here’s Andy…
Last month, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei – creator of leading artificial-intelligence (“AI”) model Claude – predicted that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within five years. He believes that, because of the introduction of AI into many businesses, the U.S. unemployment rate could rise to as high as 20%. Various models by large consulting firms like Boston Consulting Group estimate AI could replace 10% to 15% of U.S. jobs and will reshape job functions in 50% of roles.
In the stock market, the fear that AI will be able to generate sophisticated software programs to do the work of traditional businesses led to huge price declines in the software stocks. Because of those fears, on April 10 of this year, the S&P Software & Services ETF (XSW) sat at 135, 34% below its high of 206 on September 22, 2025. Among the best-known software and services companies, Adobe (ADBE) and Salesforce (CRM) are currently trading at roughly 40% below their highs.
There are three main reasons why these fears about rising unemployment, risk to software companies, and AI more broadly are overheated.
Since the 1700s, the global economy has adapted to and profited from world changing advances in technology – this history will likely repeat itself
Resource constraints – supply-chain bottlenecks and energy shortages – are likely to slow the AI boom
Limitations in even the most advanced AI models still give humans (including those who use AI as a tool) an edge
Prior Advances That Cause Fear – And Then Growth
The industrial revolution, which started in Great Britain in the mid-1700s, gave rise to numerous technological advances. For example, mechanized looms posed a threat to weavers and knitters. In 1811 this gave rise to the Luddite Movement, which registered their protest against industrialization by taking sledgehammers to new technology.
Luddites in 1812 destroying “new” technology
The British government put down the uprising, and over the short term, the rise of machinery displaced craftsmen. Eventually, the technology born during the industrial revolution led to greater employment and higher living standards.
In more recent times, the same short-term displacement and long-term growth played out with…
Automobiles, which all but eliminated horse-drawn carriages, drivers, coach builders, and blacksmiths
Computers – and the internet that followed – reduced the need for typists, office administrators, messengers, among others
Though video may have killed the radio star, it also led to almost infinite variety of home entertainment – and legions of pampered celebrities
The term artificial intelligence dates to 1955. But as a practical matter, AI came to widespread attention with the introduction of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in November 2022. Since then, as these AI tools have become more sophisticated and powerful, leading more people like Anthropic’s Dario Amodei to believe AI will replace humans.
