You Don’t Need To Call The Bottom
Inside today’s Daily Journal…
Essay: Just Name Your Price
Hedge funds are bearish
No help on the Strait of Hormuz
Mortgage rates rise – killing affordability
Chart Of The Day… Uber Technologies
Today’s Mailbag
Trading gets a bad rap.
When most people hear the word trading, they picture some RedBull chugging guy glued to a screen, watching charts flicker, trying to catch the exact moment a stock hits bottom before it rockets back up.
Buy low, sell high… Time the market. Get in before everyone else figures it out.
This approach carries a negative connotation among most serious investors for one good reason – because it’s a losing proposition.
Study after study arrives at the same conclusion: the overwhelming majority of active traders underperform a simple index fund. Below are just a few examples…
A landmark study by Barber & Odean in the Journal of Finance examined the trading accounts of 66,465 individual investors and found that the most active traders underperformed the market index by 86 basis points per month, or about 10.3% annually. On a $100,000 initial sum of capital, that leaves millions of dollars on the table over a full investing career. The paper’s conclusion was blunt: “Trading is hazardous to your wealth.”
Retail trading platform eToro has reported that 80% of day traders on the platform lose money, with an average loss of 36.3% per year.
A study by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority revealed that 72% of day traders ended the year in a financial deficit.
The problem isn’t effort or intelligence. It’s the game itself.
Trading around short-term price movements requires you to be right about both direction and timing: know what to buy, when to buy, and when to sell. And to do this consistently… The deck is stacked against you before you even enter the casino.
But in May of last year, Porter and I (Ross Hendricks) set out to prove a point: not all trading is
reckless speculation. We built a framework that doesn’t require market timing, technical analysis, or the belief that we’re smarter than every other participant staring at the same price charts. It’s a disciplined, systematic, and genuinely misunderstood approach that flips the traditional trading paradigm on its head.
We started by acknowledging one simple reality: no one can consistently anticipate where stock prices will trade in a given day, week, or month. So instead of predicting the unpredictable, we build a portfolio that can handle whatever the market throws at us. The secret is non-correlation, meaning we create a series of trades that offset one another. When one part of the portfolio is underperforming, the other non-correlated return streams kick into high gear. This way, we create multiple ways to win – regardless of whether the market goes up, down, or sideways.
This is the same basic strategy Porter uses to manage the money in his family office, which has absolutely trounced the market since inception. It’s the same strategy I’ve used in my own portfolio for generating 50% annualized returns. And it’s the same one I taught my own mother, who went from earning 5% in money market funds to crushing the S&P 500.
It’s also the same strategy we have been using in The Trading Club. Porter put $100,000 of his own cash into a live trading account to launch this new Porter & Co. service in May 2025, with the goal of earning 20% to 30% annualized returns.
Less than 10 months in, that $100,000 has now grown into $131,520 as of yesterday’s close – a 31.5% return in under 10 months, and more than double the market’s 13.5% return over the same period:

So, how did we do it?
Today, we’ll showcase the core strategy that makes up the bread and butter of our trading approach. This doesn’t require perfectly predicting the future, technical analysis, or constantly buying low and selling high. It only requires two things: knowing what something is worth and having the patience to wait.
That, in essence, is the art of selling options.
Getting Paid To Name Your Price
A put option gives its buyer the right to sell shares at a set price – called the strike price – before a set date known as the expiration date. The put buyer gains price certainty that limits their downside risk by locking in a future sales price regardless of how far the shares might fall by expiration. So in essence, put options provide a form of insurance for the stock market. And like all forms of insurance, it comes at a cost, in the form of an upfront cash premium.
The put seller on the other side of the trade earns the cash premium. And in exchange, the put seller guarantees to buy shares at a set price before the expiration date. If the stock falls below the strike price, the put seller is obligated to buy shares at the strike price. Conversely, if the stock stays above the strike price, the put seller keeps the premium and walks away from the obligation once the option expires.
Here’s the key: we only sell puts on stocks we want to own at current prices. That means we only write insurance against outcomes that we’re happy to “pay out” on: so we end up owning a stock that we want to own anyway. And in exchange for agreeing to buy the shares, we collect cold hard cash premiums.
Read that again slowly. As a put seller, you get paid to agree to buy something you already wanted, at a price you already found attractive.
This approach flips the traditional trading paradigm on its head. You don’t need to perfectly time the bottom in prices, and outsmart the market by constantly buying low and selling high. Instead, you let the market come to you, by naming your own price and then get paid to wait.
Selling puts isn’t about predicting the market. It’s about being paid to wait for the stocks you want to own — at the price you decide to pay.
Let me show you how this works with a tangible example.
A Case Study In Systematic Put Selling
Every put sale we make starts with the same deep dive, fundamental stock research we perform everyday at Porter & Co. We narrow down a universe of stocks to our highest-conviction ideas, and then, we use the options market to build in an extra margin of safety.
One of our highest-conviction ideas of the past year was in shares of Permian oil and gas royalty company Viper Energy (VNOM), which we identified as an excellent value at $40 per share. On three separate occasions when VNOM shares traded near this price, we sold $40 strike puts, as notated on the chart below:

The first trade took place on May 30, when we sold one Viper Energy (VNOM) $40 cash-secured put, expiring August 15, 2025. We received $294 in cash premiums, or $2.94 per share (each option contract consists of 100 shares).
For those interested in the detailed mechanics at work here, we made this exact same trade available for Daily Journal subscribers in an April 28 issue titled “Wall Street’s Free Lunch.”
Fast forward to the option expiration date on August 15, and VNOM shares closed below the $40 strike price, meaning the option expired in-the-money. This triggered our purchase of 100 shares at $40, and after netting out the $2.94 per share in cash premiums, our effective cost basis was reduced to $37.06 per share.
Then, we continued executing the same systematic put-selling strategy as the shares continued trading at the same attractive price.
One week later on August 22, we sold another Viper Energy (VNOM) $40 cash-secured put, expiring November 21, 2025, for $204 in net cash proceeds, or $2.04 per share.
This trade played out the same way, with the option expiring in-the-money on November 21, triggering our purchase of another 100 shares at a cost basis of $37.96 ($40 – $2.04).
Fast forward to yesterday, March 16, with VNOM shares closing at $44.90, and we’re now up between around 22% on both 100-lot share purchases.

This works out to annualized returns of between 27% and 35% on these 100-lot share purchases as of yesterday’s closing prices.
Finally, we repeated a similar trade on December 4, this time selling two Viper Energy (VNOM) $40 cash-secured puts, expiring March 20, 2026. We received $528 in net cash proceeds, or $2.65 per share. This is currently an open trade with just a few days left until expiration, as shown below:

With VNOM shares trading well above the $40 strike price, these two options will likely expire out-of-the-money on Friday. In this scenario, we’ll keep the premiums free and clear. This trade required $8,000 in capital – to purchase the shares in case they expire in-the-money – which was set aside as restricted cash at the time of the put sale. The $528 in premiums earned reflects a 7% return on invested capital, or 25% annualized.
So that’s just one example of how we’re consistently compounding capital at our target rate of 20% to 30% annualized returns. Nowhere in this process are we attempting to buy low and sell high. We’re simply identifying high-quality businesses that we believe we can determine a fair value for. And when share prices trade at or below our fair-value estimate, we’re adding in an extra margin of safety by selling puts.
In some cases, those puts end up expiring in-the-money. If so, we own shares of a high-quality business that can compound capital at highly attractive rates. In other cases, the puts expire out-of-the-money, and we’re still earning high rates of return on the put premiums.
We view this as the ultimate “heads we win, tails we don’t lose” approach to trading. And it doesn’t involve staring at a screen all day, frantically buying and selling. We focus on a core group of stocks that we understand, and often make the same series of trades over and over again.
Finding Ways To Win In Up, Down, And Sideways Markets
The put-selling approach is only one aspect of the non-correlated return streams we build into the overall portfolio. We also systematically sell covered calls on a portion of our long positions, which provides a steady source of income even if the underlying shares tread water, or even decline in value. Occasionally we’ll also purchase call options, targeting asymmetric upside. Like our British American Tobacco (BTI) call options that have returned over 300%. And along the way, we hedge downside risk by purchasing put options, which are designed for payouts of 10-to-1 in the event of a market crash, thereby protecting the rest of our portfolio.
The end goal: a durable portfolio that can thrive regardless of whether stock prices go up, down, or sideways. And we do it all with 100% transparency, sending members trade details before we place them, using a real-money account, and providing weekly updates as to the performance of the portfolio. We also offer The Trading Club Forum so members can get answers quickly to their trading-related questions.
Our goal is to continue generating 20% to 30% annualized returns over a full market cycle, while taking less risk than the overall market. And while we can’t promise what our future returns will look like, the one thing we can guarantee is a real-world scoreboard that shows everything: the good, the bad, and the ugly. And so far, we’ve received rave reviews from subscribers who all seem to agree that this service is unlike anything else they’ve experienced, including the following testimonials:
From Larry B.:
This is one of the best products I have ever seen, and I’m a lifetime member at Stansberry and at Porter & Co. I’d increase my annual dues before I’d let this service go.
From Brady G.:
I want to commend you on The Trading Club portfolio success so far. The training materials, support, trade explanations, follow-up, and overall success have been OUTSTANDING! Thank you for the terrific work you and the team are doing… keep them coming.
From Jack P.:
My odometer will tick over 75 years shortly. In that time I have reviewed, purchased, joined, and/or subscribed to scores upon scores of investment newsletters.
Most fall into two broad categories. One offers more hype than substance bedazzling with astronomical winning trades and/or bells-and-whistle technology… without divulging that losers torpedo net return or that volatility kills compounding in real life. Second, generally more conservative, genre offers generic portfolios with buy and sell recommendations. Mostly, these involve relatively long-term stock purchases, although a few focus on option trading… usually relatively risky long calls and puts or uncovered short options. Strategies range from technical to fundamental. In most cases, little or no guidance is given on risk management.
I was lucky to become aware of the Porter & Co. Trading Club and joined at its opening May 30. This service combines in-depth fundamental analysis of stocks with integrated risk management and income enhancement using low-risk covered option strategies. Your weekly updates keep us informed and provide training to those unfamiliar with the techniques employed. The training alone is worth the annual fee (I’m not asking for an increase!).
From Hershall C.:
I’ve been trading options for nearly a decade and have found tremendous value in this service – particularly the trading video, which was both insightful and well-executed. I’m always looking to deepen my understanding of options trading to ensure I’m staying sharp, and The Trading Club has already delivered meaningful knowledge in that regard.
While I also hold lifetime memberships with Stansberry and Tradesmith, The Trading Club has quickly become one of the few publications I read immediately and genuinely look forward to.
Thank you for providing such a high-caliber service.
We encourage you to check it out and see if this approach makes sense for you. We open The Trading Club up for new memberships once every quarter. And right now, membership is open for the next week only.
Tell us what you think: [email protected]
Good investing,
Ross Hendricks
Houston, Texas
In this advertisement from our friends at Jared Dillian Money, former Lehman trader Jared Dillian reveals why he’s positioned hard against one of Wall Street’s most sacred asset classes…
In five minutes a day, Jared’s three-page The Daily Dirtnap kept readers from being late to the late-2023 rate drop while “higher for longer” was still consensus and captured a contrarian South American trade that delivered triple-digit gains.

Click here to see why he’s taking the other side of one of Wall Street’s sacred cows, and why Porter Stansberry calls him one of his top 3 favorite financial writers.
Editor’s Note: This post is sponsored by our friends at Jared Dillian Money. We only accept advertising from publishers we know to offer well-researched ideas vetted by a legal team, excellent customer service, and reasonable refund policies.
We do not, however, make any representations about their investment ideas, nor will we warrant them as equal to our own.
Porter & Co. also may disagree with the ideas presented by our sponsors but we understand there’s more than one way to skin a cat. With that said, you can check out what Jared is predicting by clicking here.
3 Things To Know Before We Go…

1. Hedge funds are very bearish. Short positions in U.S.-listed ETFs surged 10% last Thursday, the second-largest single-day increase in a decade, pushing total short exposure to the 2022 bear-market peak of 11.6%. Funds are betting heavily against the market due to the energy crisis caused by the war in Iran.
2. U.S. allies reject Trump’s request for Hormuz help. The White House asked China, NATO, and other countries to send warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Almost universally, the answer has been “no.” European Union foreign ministers voted down expanding their Red Sea naval mission to cover Hormuz. Germany’s defense minister asked bluntly what “a handful of European frigates” could do that the U.S. Navy cannot. And China dodged the question entirely. Meanwhile, Gulf oil exports have plunged 60% since the war started, and crude oil remains stubbornly above $95 per barrel.
3. Mortgage rates aren’t helping housing unaffordability. Mortgage rates jumped to 6.86% yesterday – their highest level since November – meaning the typical monthly payment is nearly double what it was pre-pandemic. Until rates fall meaningfully or housing prices adjust downward, the affordability crisis rolls on.
Chart Of The Day… Uber Finds A Friend
Uber Technologies (UBER) announced that it will deploy Level 4 autonomous taxis powered by Nvidia’s Alpamayo AI and DRIVE Hyperion platform – starting in Los Angeles next year and expanding to 28 cities globally by 2028… Shares of Uber (a Complete Investor recommendation) are up more than 8% over the past week.

Mailbag
“Tariffs And Inflation – I Agree With Your Article 100%”
Peter K. writes:
Very interesting read. I agree with your article 100%. I was married and raising a family in the early 1970s. President Richard Nixon, in an effort to slow inflation, introduced wage and price freezes and tariffs. It didn’t stop inflation, just slowed it down a little. But there were shortages of products in the stores. The big food complaint today is the high price of meat. It was the same back then. My brother-in-law and I would go shoot a deer periodically to reduce how much meat we bought at the store.
I tell people that I’m against tariffs and the low-level wars that the United States involves itself with. I tell people it’s all about keeping the military/industrial complex in business. Many members of Congress and the Senate are highly invested in the defense industry, and the country certainly can’t cut into their dividend income.
Donald Trump has turned the presidency into a commercial enterprise. Trump and Melania’s own memecoins, which I’m happy to see have tanked. And let’s all run out and buy a Trump wristwatch. How about his Trump 2028 hats? I’m for the USA, but I’m not happy with the direction the country is heading.
Over the years, I’ve lived through Carter inflation, the depression in the first two years of Reagan’s administration, the housing crisis, as well as the COVID pandemic, and did quite well. Your articles, as well as Bill Bonner’s and Jim Rickards’, have helped guide my investing over the years. I managed to retire in my mid-50s and never look back. I’m now well into the back half of my 70s, and I’m glad I never trusted the government agencies to tell me the truth, but to look elsewhere for information. Thank you for your writing!
“True Believers”
John B. writes:
Porter,
I am glad you are speaking out. Sometimes I feel like nobody is listening to logic… on either side of the political spectrum. They all have their own version of the numbers. Sort of like accountants.
I am not sure I am ready to think we will collapse all that quickly, but I have seen no discussion of how to reduce our debt in any rational way. There is one theory that says there is going to be so much capital flowing due to AI, data centers, and quantum computing that we will easily be able to pay that off. Things are changing fast, but I have not seen anything that yet supports it other than the massive layoffs to which you have also referred and warned.
Keep sharing your thoughts with us. I’m not cancelling.
“Tarriff Column”
Kathy D. writes:
Porter,
Thank you for writing this column. I have screenshot a number of your examples to send to a few friends who think tariffs are justified. I am in the conservative camp, but never agreed with this nonsense.


Please note: The investments in our “Porter & Co. Top Positions” should not be considered current recommendations. These positions are the best performers across our publications – and the securities listed may (or may not) be above the current buy-up-to price. To learn more, visit the current portfolio page of the relevant service, here. To gain access or to learn more about our current recommendations, call our Customer Care team at 888-610-8895 or internationally at +1 443-815-4447.


